![]() ![]() ![]() This harm will be compounded if a Senate trial proves all charges against Trump, then acquits him on a party-line vote.Ī second-term Trump would surely continue to rely on the countermajoritarian Senate-at this point it’s less democratically representative than the Electoral College-to cram through conservative judges who will act as umpires for a game that the American majority is not allowed to win. If that happens, three of the past four Republican presidential terms will have lacked a popular mandate. The damage Trump could do in a second term would be substantial, and possibly irreversible-starting with the harm that would be done to the legitimacy of the American political system if he once again wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. To do this, he must activate intergroup hatred on a scale not seen since George Wallace-and never considered by an incumbent president since Andrew Johnson. Trump’s most plausible plan for reelection is to hope that, by inflaming the racial fears of white voters, he can hold most of his 2016 states and possibly flip a couple of others. His campaign seems to accept that he will almost certainly lose the popular vote again, and probably by an even bigger margin than in 2016. Predicting impeachment’s effect on his electoral prospects is tricky, but even in the most favorable scenarios, Trump’s 2020 map is tough. Many Republican senators fear him even more than they hate him, making 67 Senate votes a high hurdle. As of early fall, the president’s net approval rating was deep underwater in the three states decisive to his Electoral College victory in 2016: negative eight points in Pennsylvania, negative 10 points in Michigan, and negative 11 points in Wisconsin.Īs of this writing, Trump seems highly likely to survive impeachment itself. The economy softened midway through 2019. The impeachment process points toward a removal trial in 2020. Meanwhile, the president’s hopes of retaining office by legal means for even four more years seem to be dwindling. “I’m going to have to extend it for a couple of years.” “We’re going to have to extend my second term because 2026,” the year the World Cup will return to North America, he said. In July he tweeted jokingly (“just kidding”) about staying in office for “10 or 14” more years.Įven on the verge of an impeachment inquiry, in September, Trump enjoyed the familiar joke once more, this time with the head of the soccer association FIFA. This May, he retweeted Jerry Falwell Jr.’s suggestion that Trump should get a two-year extension of his first term as “reparations” for what Falwell called “the corrupt failed coup”-the special counsel’s investigation and related inquiries. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday.”Īt a rally in Elkhart, Indiana, two months later, Trump mused about getting an “extension” of his presidency beyond the eight-year constitutional maximum. Toasting Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in March 2018, Trump said: “He’s now president for life. P resident Donald Trump is not much of a humorist, yet he never tires of joking that he might not leave office. ![]()
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